The Economy: A Big Nasty Financial Smoothie!

2011. Yep. 2011.  So far, I have to say I don't have a lot of great news about 2011.  I know it's only been three weeks, but in those three weeks, here is some of the information that has come my way:

• Another decline in housing prices. Which pushes us past the Great Depression. Ugh.
• Stiff unemployment likely to remain through the year.
• American companies are hiring more outside the country (see above).
• My own industry is screaming at me: Get out of lending!! No work ahead!!
• On the other hand, they are also telling me appraisers are going to become hourly-paid stat-jockeys. So, I'd better run out and get that new certification if I want to catch this wave! (For only $699.99!)
• They might be right, I've had only a trickle of work this month.....err. I really don't want them to be right. 
• Turns out I may just be in denial though, because they were right the last time this happened.

This makes me feel sort of like.....

Yeah, you get the picture!!  SO, right now what I am looking for is GOOD NEWS.  Has anyone actually recently bought a home? Tell me about it!  Are you thinking about it?  Tell me!  Have you moved recently to a place you really love (rent or own)?  Yes, tell me! Are you thinking of moving?  What is it you really want in your home? Your neighborhood?  Have you recently found a new job?  What are you looking for in your work environment? In your life?

American values are changing, quickly.  After so much loss over the past few years, I think we are reassessing what we really cherish in life. As I venture forward in this great chaotic economic blender I hope to gain a sense of what the good things are. I dare to put these messages into a bottle and send it out into that sea.

Yeah, I want some good news!

Housing Market and Jobs in 2011, What’s in Store?

With all the recent talk about U.S. unemployment rates and an unhealthy job market, there’s definitely some speculation on how high unemployment will impact the housing market in 2011.  Recently, the Economic Policy Institute released a piece discussing how the labor force is actually smaller than when the recession started, despite population growth.  They published the following graph which illustrates the trends in job losses and gains in all post-war recessions (yes, we are the Big Red Line called the Great Recession):

Below  are the California median housing prices for the same years from DQNews.com.  Coincidence?  I think not. There is a definite link between housing prices and job growth and it seems that until Americans have some cash in hand they are going to maintain some difficulty in buying properties. 

The question is whether or not this problem with job growth will continue. Several articles have discussed the impact of corporations sending jobs overseas.  Again, The Economic Policy Institute shows that American companies have created 1.4 million jobs OVERSEAS this year, compared with less than 1 million in the U.S.  Those 1.4 million jobs would have more than doubled our hires, and lowered the U.S. unemployment rate to 8.9 percent. 

With all but 4 of the top 500 companies reporting profits this year and the stock market close to its highest point since the 2008 meltdown, Americans should be seeing plenty of paychecks. But, we’re not. According to David Wyss of Standard and Poor, half of the revenue for companies in the S&P 500 in the last couple years has come from outside the U.S.!  Yes, that’s one-half, kids.

This is one factor affecting homebuyer purchase power.  There are several others, including foreclosure rates, credit and lending restrictions, and the actions of the Federal Reserve on interest rates (I’m crossing fingers on that one!), etc.  At this point, it appears we may be playing a waiting game.

In the meantime, housing prices are dropping again over the winter so for you potential homeowners this Spring may indeed be the time to get out there and take a look at what’s on the market. With a buyer’s market and low interest rates saving you thousands over the loan, buyers have immense bargaining power.  One thing I am noticing this winter is the absence of active listings here in the East Bay - so do not expect a flood of houses to choose from! What to look for when buying? Well, now, that’s for a future blog.

Through the Looking Glass I Go!

Ready! Set! Go! Ok.....wait, slow down....um....wait....stop...? 

It seems like the world of real estate in this new decade is one of  the Unsure.  We are unsure if we want to buy, unsure if we'll sell, unsure if we'll get that loan, unsure if we'll be working in this field a year from now....it's just so muddy!  Well, hopefully by sticking together we can create a bit more security for ourselves in this crazy world!  Just maybe, we can create a sense of stability and comfort from knowledge and information.  Just maybe, we can create some community. 

Welcome to my blog. In this resource, I fully intend to distribute/criticize/apprehend/comprehend/question the information that is relevant to us as professionals, home owners, realists and dreamers.  In this particular blog, expect:

• local real estate news
• local and non-local financial news that impacts real estate
• market and niche market info, from an appraiser perspective
• stories about my appraising experiences, trials and tribulations
• some graphs, yes, definitely some graphs because I "am" an analyst after all
• probably some interesting science bits here and there, since I have an extensive background in the biological sciences
• various other distributions for you, some entertaining and light, others more serious

I am a relative newbie social networker, so please be patient and gentle with me.  I really appreciate any of the following:

• questions! questions! questions!
• comments (criticism is good, but please be constructive!)
• helpful tips
• informative links
• your business (hint: my email is tyoung@futurefocusappraisal.com please let me know if you are in need of my services)
• cookies & cupcakes
• networking opportunities
• more cupcakes

And there you have it! Welcome! You may also find me on LinkedIn and Twitter. I hope to be of service to my friends, my family and my community. Let's do this!