A DYING INDUSTRY?
So, it's come to the point now where the types of problems that are popping up in the appraisal industry force me to question my own sanity in being an appraiser. The bank account is almost drained, but I'm still spending countless hours on appraisals I am clearly not getting paid enough for (what with the myriad of changes/requests/alterations that come in after the appraisal is done). I'm working hard but hardly paid. This is not a good sign for the industry. But there's more.
COMPUTERS VS. HUMAN CRITICAL THINKING
Today, I had an underwriter (from a certain bank that rhymes with pace) tell me that the statistic of a loss of $0.15 per square foot per day was not a rate. That a rate should only be expressed as a percentage in a report. Essentially, informing me that the nicely worked regression technique I employed to guide me in estimating declining values in this market was not valid. This is a technique not only used by other appraisers, but at the core of the scientific world as well, and one that I used for years in graduate school and actually taught in genetics courses. Their lack of understanding of basic statistical analysis paints a very poor picture of what is going on in lending today. If the underwriter does not understand basic statistics, then how is she/he making the ultimate determination in funding a loan? Has the system become so automated that no one really understands what they are doing anymore? Loans are then being funded by computers, not people? This points to a system that is so over-automated that humans are no longer in control of what is going on. I would much rather have a human, skilled in critical thinking and analysis, reading appraisal reports and following my own path of analysis. A computer and a "screening" system does not respond to the nuances of an analysis and doesn't even register a comment with unmatched parameters. So be it. I believe the signs of the appraisal apocalypse are here! It is time to move on.
NEW SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL TERMINAL
On a good note, the San Francisco Airport is forging ahead in the green movement, with a $383 million green overhaul of the International Terminal, featuring "building systems that exceed energy reductions demanded by California code by 15 percent; water-saving measures and fixtures that cut consumption by an average of 40 percent; a design that bathes the facility in natural light; decor that's more akin to the hospitality industry than commercial travel; and shops, restaurants and other diversions that can be found at an upscale mall."
Read more: http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2011/04/07/sf-airport-reopens-iconic-terminal-383m-green-showcase#ixzz1Jv77Nptx
Message? The time right now is to move forward into areas of Progress, not areas of Regress. Unfortunately, appraising appears to be in a huge backward movement....and I'm determined not to get stuck in that rip tide! I'm heading ashore, onto greener pastures.
"statistic of a loss of $0.15 per square foot per day was not a rate." My opinion is that your working too hard. Just do a simple chart with a trend line they can understand. A self contained report with a four digit fee is a more appropriate place for such an analysis. Good luck.
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